Both coaches have cited concerns about fatigue following their European exploits, but the two teams have had a similar workload in that regard. It may, therefore, be a cautious encounter decided by a single goal, and Lazio's ability to keep the back door shut could tip the balance in their favour.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.
0.02) 
-0.12) 
