NEC have not been drawing quite as many games recently, but Vitesse have shared the spoils in their last three, proving that they can compete with the better sides in the league.
As such, we expect Sunday's game to finish all square given the home side's recent record, and the fact that they do not often lose against their opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for NEC had a probability of 25.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest NEC win was 0-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.41) 
0.16) 
