Monaco seem to come to life every season at the beginning of the calendar year, and their form domestically has been a lot more consistent when compared to their German counterparts this month.
Leverkusen have been better at home in the Bundesliga of late but have not been quite as sharp against the elite teams in Germany, and there is not much evidence to suggest they can improve their poor form in Europe.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
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