SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5.98%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | AEK Athens |
39.05% ( 0.19) | 24.63% ( -0.02) | 36.32% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 59.05% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.02% ( 0.06) | 43.98% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.64% ( 0.06) | 66.36% ( -0.06) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.56% ( 0.12) | 22.44% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.02% ( 0.18) | 55.98% ( -0.18) |
| AEK Athens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.13% ( -0.06) | 23.87% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.94% ( -0.09) | 58.06% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | AEK Athens |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.05% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.63% | 1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.06% Total : 36.32% |
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