SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 75.12%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 7.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.56%) and 3-0 (11.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.79%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Colombia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Paraguay |
75.12% ( 26.45) | 17.1% ( -9.45) | 7.79% ( -17) |
| Both teams to score 36.67% ( -10.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.59% ( 7.35) | 49.41% ( -7.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.54% ( 6.25) | 71.45% ( -6.25) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.5% ( 11.88) | 11.5% ( -11.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.63% ( 20.98) | 36.37% ( -20.99) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.44% ( -20.07) | 58.56% ( 20.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.1% ( -14.66) | 89.89% ( 14.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Paraguay |
| 2-0 @ 15.75% ( 6.25) 1-0 @ 14.56% ( 1.49)3-0 @ 11.35% ( 6.75)2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.65)4-0 @ 6.14% ( 4.47)3-1 @ 6.08% ( 1.68)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 1.69)5-0 @ 2.66% ( 2.17)3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.47)5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.96)6-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.84)Other @ 2.85% Total : 75.11% | 1-1 @ 7.79% ( -4.69) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( -2.27)2-2 @ 2.26% ( -2.08)Other @ 0.31% Total : 17.1% | 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -4.99) 1-2 @ 2.09% ( -3.88)0-2 @ 0.96% ( -3.14)Other @ 1.13% Total : 7.79% |
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