SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uruguay | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Chile | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Japan | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | Paraguay |
55.82% ( 0.03) | 24.62% ( 0.01) | 19.57% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 46.29% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.39% ( -0.08) | 54.61% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.05% ( -0.06) | 75.95% ( 0.06) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.51% ( -0.02) | 19.49% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.64% ( -0.03) | 51.36% ( 0.03) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.5% ( -0.09) | 42.5% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.13% ( -0.07) | 78.87% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | Paraguay |
| 1-0 @ 13.54% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.47% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.11% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.82% Total : 55.81% | 1-1 @ 11.59% 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 24.62% | 0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 19.57% |
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