SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 48.16%. A win for Japan had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Japan win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Japan |
48.16% ( -0.05) | 25.41% ( 0.08) | 26.42% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.85% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.7% ( -0.35) | 51.3% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.87% ( -0.31) | 73.13% ( 0.3) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.69% ( -0.16) | 21.31% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.74% ( -0.25) | 54.26% ( 0.25) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.9% ( -0.21) | 34.1% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.21% ( -0.23) | 70.79% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Japan |
| 1-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.48% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 48.16% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 26.42% |
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