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Liga MX | Gameweek 12
Mar 18, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
3 - 0
Pumas

Vega (14'), Volpi (36' pen.), Dominguez (77')
Baeza (75')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Lopez (39'), Silva (40'), Suarez (64')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Pumas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Juarez 1-1 Toluca
Saturday, March 9 at 3.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Pumas 3-3 Tijuana
Sunday, March 10 at 6pm in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 58.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Pumas had a probability of 19.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.41%) and 2-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Pumas win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawPumas
58.81% (0.294 0.29) 21.44% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 19.75% (-0.271 -0.27)
Both teams to score 56.48% (-0.384 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.79% (-0.297 -0.3)41.21% (0.3 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.4% (-0.303 -0.3)63.6% (0.306 0.31)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.29% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)13.71% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.05% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)40.94% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Pumas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.45% (-0.44200000000001 -0.44)34.55% (0.445 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.73% (-0.475 -0.48)71.27% (0.47800000000001 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 58.81%
    Pumas 19.75%
    Draw 21.44%
TolucaDrawPumas
2-1 @ 9.94% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.41% (0.124 0.12)
2-0 @ 9.35% (0.12 0.12)
3-1 @ 6.58% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-0 @ 6.2% (0.078 0.08)
3-2 @ 3.5% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-1 @ 3.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 3.08% (0.038 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.74% (-0.021 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.3%
5-0 @ 1.22% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 58.81%
1-1 @ 10% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.28% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.74% (0.065 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 21.44%
1-2 @ 5.32% (-0.058 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.03% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.67% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.88% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-3 @ 0.95% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 19.75%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Juarez 1-1 Toluca
Saturday, March 9 at 3.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Tigres
Saturday, March 2 at 11pm in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 2-0 Tijuana
Sunday, February 25 at 6pm in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 1-0 Santos Laguna
Thursday, February 22 at 1am in Liga MX
Last Game: Monterrey 0-0 Toluca
Monday, February 19 at 2.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 2-3 Herediano
Friday, February 16 at 1am in CONCACAF Champions League
Last Game: Pumas 3-3 Tijuana
Sunday, March 10 at 6pm in Liga MX
Last Game: Monterrey 3-0 Pumas
Monday, March 4 at 1am in Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 3-1 Pumas
Sunday, February 25 at 1.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Pumas 3-0 Santos Laguna
Monday, February 19 at 12.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Atlas 0-0 Pumas
Thursday, February 15 at 3am in Liga MX
Last Game: Pumas 3-0 Puebla
Sunday, February 11 at 6pm in Liga MX


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