SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.16%. A win for Juarez had a probability of 29.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.24%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Juarez win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Juarez | Draw | Toluca |
29.37% ( 0.21) | 24.47% ( -0.01) | 46.16% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 57.08% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.55% ( 0.15) | 45.45% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.22% ( 0.15) | 67.78% ( -0.15) |
| Juarez Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.17% ( 0.22) | 28.83% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.31% ( 0.27) | 64.69% ( -0.28) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.2% ( -0.02) | 19.8% ( 0.02) |
