After a convincing loss at Nantes and a one-point deduction, it is fair to assume that Montpellier may not be in the best headspace to grind out a result on Sunday.
Toulouse return to domestic matters following a humbling evening at Anfield, but we believe Martinez's men will get back to winning ways this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.12) 
