SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 44.67%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Chorley |
44.67% ( -0.11) | 25.31% ( 0.36) | 30.02% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.65% ( -1.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.2% ( -1.67) | 48.8% ( 1.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.1% ( -1.53) | 70.9% ( 1.53) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.16% ( -0.75) | 21.83% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.94% ( -1.15) | 55.06% ( 1.16) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.92% ( -1.01) | 30.08% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.78% ( -1.23) | 66.22% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.45) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.38% Total : 44.67% | 1-1 @ 12% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 7.21% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.2% Total : 30.02% |
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