Estrela have shown their mettle on home turf in recent weeks, but other than frustrating their opponents to a point, we believe that Sporting will have enough firepower to come away with the desired result at the Estadio Jose Gomes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.87%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 12.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
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