Off the back of ending their four-game losing streak, Maritimo will head into the weekend with renewed belief as they look to beat the drop. However, they take on a Gil Vicente side who are unbeaten in seven of their nine matches this year and have put together a fine run of form on home turf.
We predict a cagey affair on Sunday with the Gilistas picking up all three points and sending the visitors crashing back to earth.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 54.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 21.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Gil Vicente.
0.59) 
-0.11) 
