Despite sitting only six points above the relegation playoff position in the Primeira Liga standings, we predict that Sousa's side will put their modest league form to one side on Wednesday evening to seal their place in the semi-finals of the Taca de Portugal.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 54.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 20.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
-0.01) 
0) 
