SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 45.85%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.48%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 2-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Al Gharafa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Umm Salal | Draw | Al Gharafa |
30.9% ( -0.31) | 23.25% ( -0.01) | 45.85% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 62.32% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.04% ( -0.1) | 38.95% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.73% ( -0.1) | 61.27% ( 0.1) |
| Umm Salal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.4% ( -0.24) | 24.6% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.9% ( -0.34) | 59.1% ( 0.34) |
| Al Gharafa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.65% ( 0.09) | 17.35% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.26% ( 0.16) | 47.74% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Umm Salal | Draw | Al Gharafa |
| 2-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.44% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.7% Total : 30.9% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.24% | 1-2 @ 9.18% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.35% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.04% Total : 45.85% |
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