SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 51.05%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 24.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 0-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
51.05% ( -0.02) | 24.28% ( -0.1) | 24.67% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 53.75% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.99% ( 0.54) | 48.01% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.82% ( 0.5) | 70.18% ( -0.49) |
| Hearts Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.19% ( 0.2) | 18.81% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.76% ( 0.34) | 50.24% ( -0.33) |
| Kilmarnock Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.21% ( 0.4) | 33.79% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.54% ( 0.43) | 70.46% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
| 1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.21% Total : 51.05% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.28% | 0-1 @ 6.9% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.67% |
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