SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for St Johnstone had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a St Johnstone win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kilmarnock | Draw | St Johnstone |
52.12% ( -0.83) | 24.87% ( 0.1) | 23.02% ( 0.73) |
| Both teams to score 50.13% ( 0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.1% ( 0.33) | 51.9% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.35% ( 0.29) | 73.65% ( -0.29) |
| Kilmarnock Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.1% ( -0.2) | 19.9% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.98% ( -0.33) | 52.02% ( 0.33) |
| St Johnstone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.59% ( 0.89) | 37.41% ( -0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.8% ( 0.87) | 74.2% ( -0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kilmarnock | Draw | St Johnstone |
| 1-0 @ 12.01% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.26)2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.22% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.78% Total : 52.11% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.86% | 0-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.81% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.67% Total : 23.02% |
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