Neither side is in top goalscoring form, but Empoli's decent-to-good record at the Castellani — they had gone five unbeaten until recent defeats by Napoli and Udinese — and Lecce's ongoing four-game run without scoring means the Azzurri should edge this one by the odd goal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Empoli in this match.
-1.66) 
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