We believe that this competition will be decided by which team is able to keep the tightest defence and be clinical with their opportunities in front of the goal.
Therefore, we think that Sporting Lisbon will not win their third Taca da Liga trophy in a row and that Porto will come out victorious for the first time ever in this competition.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 38.01%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
