Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haka win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for TPS had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haka win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest TPS win was 1-0 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haka would win this match.