Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Hilal win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Hilal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Hilal would win this match.
