SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 14.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.73%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | Instituto |
60.46% ( 0.46) | 25.34% ( -0.57) | 14.21% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 35.39% ( 1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.2% ( 1.72) | 63.81% ( -1.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.96% ( 1.22) | 83.05% ( -1.21) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.68% ( 0.92) | 21.32% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.73% ( 1.4) | 54.28% ( -1.39) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.98% ( 1.22) | 55.02% ( -1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 12.11% ( 0.72) | 87.89% ( -0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | Instituto |
| 1-0 @ 18.13% ( -0.66) 2-0 @ 14% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.68% Total : 60.45% | 0-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.77) 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.27% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.87% Total : 14.21% |
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