SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 35.01%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Instituto win was 1-0 (13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Lanus |
34.82% ( -0.71) | 30.17% ( -0.27) | 35.01% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 41.69% ( 0.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.36% ( 0.85) | 65.64% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.67% ( 0.58) | 84.33% ( -0.58) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.5% ( -0.02) | 35.5% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.73% ( -0.02) | 72.26% ( 0.02) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.63% ( 1.15) | 35.37% ( -1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.87% ( 1.17) | 72.13% ( -1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 13% ( -0.42) 2-1 @ 7% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 2.42% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.09% Total : 34.82% | 1-1 @ 13.51% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 12.55% ( -0.4)2-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.16% | 0-1 @ 13.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.11% Total : 35% |
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