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Thursday, March 28
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AM
Brasileiro | Gameweek 38
Dec 10, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Independencia
SP

America Mineiro
2 - 0
Sao Paulo

Ademir (58', 62')
Ricardo (28'), Silva (45+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Diego (45+4'), Falcao (79')

We said: America Mineiro 1-0 Sao Paulo

By all accounts, America would consider their return to the top flight as a big success, and one reason has been their ability to take advantage of their home field, where they have only conceded once in their previous three encounters. Except for a 3-0 defeat to Gremio, Sao Paulo have been able to keep their road matches relatively close, but their attention seems to be placed solely on defending in those games while forgetting that you need to take a couple of chances moving forward to win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 49.21%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.75%.

The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.

Result
America MineiroDrawSao Paulo
49.21%26.04%24.75%
Both teams to score 48.54%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.09%54.91%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.8%76.2%
America Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.65%22.35%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.16%55.84%
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.51%37.49%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.72%74.27%
Score Analysis
    America Mineiro 49.21%
    Sao Paulo 24.75%
    Draw 26.03%
America MineiroDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 12.55%
2-0 @ 9.41%
2-1 @ 9.23%
3-0 @ 4.7%
3-1 @ 4.61%
3-2 @ 2.26%
4-0 @ 1.76%
4-1 @ 1.73%
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 49.21%
1-1 @ 12.31%
0-0 @ 8.38%
2-2 @ 4.53%
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 8.22%
1-2 @ 6.04%
0-2 @ 4.03%
1-3 @ 1.98%
2-3 @ 1.48%
0-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 24.75%

Read more!
Read more!


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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