By all accounts, America would consider their return to the top flight as a big success, and one reason has been their ability to take advantage of their home field, where they have only conceded once in their previous three encounters.
Except for a 3-0 defeat to Gremio, Sao Paulo have been able to keep their road matches relatively close, but their attention seems to be placed solely on defending in those games while forgetting that you need to take a couple of chances moving forward to win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 49.21%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
