We said: Sao Paulo 1-0 Sport Recife
These are the two lowest-scoring sides in the Brasileiro Serie A who have both lacked quality in attack, so this could be a tough match to call, but we are going with Sao Paulo because they have been solid at home while Recife rarely generate a lot offensively on the road.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 60.85%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 14.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.39%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
