All year long, the Corinthians back four have almost always been in the right place at the right time to make timely challenges and are usually in the perfect position, and it helps when they only have to contend with a few attacks each game because Timao traditionally have the majority of the possession.
Despite a good bounce-back performance on Thursday, Gremio are often caught out of position at the back, especially away from home, having conceded seven times in their previous three away matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 47.92%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 25.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.18%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
