Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Goias had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Goias win was 1-0 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.