Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 41.55%. A win for Corinthians had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Corinthians win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.