Fortaleza could not find the back of the net in three of their previous four road matches in all competitions, and their consistency has been an issue down the stretch of this campaign.
Santos look incredibly comfortable at the back in front of their fans, collecting three shutouts in their previous four home matches, conceding five shots or fewer on target in each of those victories.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 48.05%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 25.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
