Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.