Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 43.31%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
