Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou win with a probability of 53.12%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 24.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.