Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.91%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
