The hits to both teams due to international call-ups create a somewhat level playing field, but, with the remaining squads, the Mexican giants look stronger on paper.
In what should certainly be a close affair, we just give Monterrey the edge and fancy them to book their place in next week's semi-final.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Ahly win with a probability of 43.99%. A win for Monterrey had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Ahly win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Monterrey win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Al Ahly in this match.
