SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 52.99%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Bahamas had a probability of 22.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Bahamas win it was 0-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nicaragua would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nicaragua | Draw | Bahamas |
52.99% ( -0.02) | 24.59% ( 0.01) | 22.42% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.23% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.59% ( -0.02) | 51.41% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.78% ( -0.02) | 73.22% ( 0.02) |
| Nicaragua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.64% ( -0.02) | 19.36% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.85% ( -0.03) | 51.14% ( 0.03) |
| Bahamas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.29% ( -0) | 37.71% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.51% ( -0.01) | 74.48% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nicaragua | Draw | Bahamas |
| 1-0 @ 11.98% 2-0 @ 9.84% ( -0)2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.16% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 52.98% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0)Other @ 0.92% Total : 24.59% | 0-1 @ 7.12% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.7% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.47% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.85% 2-3 @ 1.52% 0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 1.62% Total : 22.42% |
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