Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 69.76%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Pena Deportiva had a probability of 11.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.15%) and 1-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Pena Deportiva win it was 1-0 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.13) 
