Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 53.98%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 20.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.