Simeone will ring the changes for this match, with a number of youngsters set to be in the squad, so Rayo will not be taking on a full-strength Atletico, but it is still very difficult to imagine anything other than a routine victory for the visitors, who should have too much quality on the night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Rayo Majadahonda had a probability of 18.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.81%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Rayo Majadahonda win it was 1-0 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
