Atletico's defensive woes are there to be exposed by Porto this week, and the Portuguese hosts would choose no better time to find their shooting boots in Europe after some previous profligacy. Both teams have a desperate need for points on Tuesday, but Atletico have plenty of experienced names used to high-pressure situations such as this one and ought to take a point back home to Madrid, although that result would not exactly benefit either side's hopes of securing second. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 48.8%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result
Porto	Draw	Atletico Madrid
48.8%	23.42%	27.78%

Both teams to score 59.54%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.3%

41.69%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.9%

64.1%

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.73%

17.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.4%

47.6%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.97%

28.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.32%

63.68%

Score Analysis

Porto 48.8%

Atletico Madrid 27.78%

Draw 23.42%

Porto	Draw	Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 9.5% 1-0 @ 8.5% 2-0 @ 7.47% 3-1 @ 5.56% 3-0 @ 4.37% 3-2 @ 3.54% 4-1 @ 2.44% 4-0 @ 1.92% 4-2 @ 1.55% Other @ 3.96% Total : 48.8%	1-1 @ 10.81% 2-2 @ 6.04% 0-0 @ 4.84% 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.42%	1-2 @ 6.88% 0-1 @ 6.16% 0-2 @ 3.92% 1-3 @ 2.92% 2-3 @ 2.56% 0-3 @ 1.66% 1-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.77% Total : 27.78%