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Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 23, 2024 at 12am UK
Arena Corinthians

Corinthians
2 - 1
America FC

Alberto (42'), Caca (90+1')
Garro (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
da Silva Costa Ferreira (52')
da Silva Costa Ferreira (45')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Corinthians 4-0 Argentinos Jrs
Wednesday, May 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: America FC 1-1 Juventude (3-5 pen.)
Wednesday, August 26 at 8pm in Copa do Brasil

We said: Corinthians 2-0 America de Natal

Despite America FC pushing Corinthians all the way in the first leg of the game, the hosts have not lost any of their last six home games heading into this one, and we expect them to continue that streak with a victory here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 64.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for America de Natal had a probability of 14.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for an America de Natal win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.

Result
CorinthiansDrawAmerica de Natal
64.59% (-0.0049999999999955 -0) 20.71%14.7% (0.004999999999999 0)
Both teams to score 48.4% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.29% (0.0039999999999978 0)46.71% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.02% (0.0019999999999989 0)68.98% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Corinthians Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.28% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)13.72%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.03% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)40.96%
America de Natal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.09% (0.007000000000005 0.01)43.91% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)80.05% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Corinthians 64.59%
    America de Natal 14.7%
    Draw 20.71%
CorinthiansDrawAmerica de Natal
1-0 @ 11.96%
2-0 @ 11.88%
2-1 @ 9.78% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 7.87% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 6.48%
4-0 @ 3.91% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 3.22%
3-2 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 1.55%
4-2 @ 1.32%
5-1 @ 1.28%
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 64.59%
1-1 @ 9.85%
0-0 @ 6.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 4.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 20.71%
0-1 @ 4.96%
1-2 @ 4.05% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 2.04%
1-3 @ 1.11% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.1%
Other @ 1.43%
Total : 14.7%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Corinthians 4-0 Argentinos Jrs
Wednesday, May 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Flamengo 2-0 Corinthians
Saturday, May 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Nacional 0-2 Corinthians
Tuesday, May 7 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Corinthians 0-0 Fortaleza
Sunday, May 5 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Corinthians 3-0 Fluminense
Sunday, April 28 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 1-0 Corinthians
Wednesday, April 24 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: America FC 1-1 Juventude (3-5 pen.)
Wednesday, August 26 at 8pm in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Juventude 1-1 America FC
Wednesday, March 11 at 10.15pm in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: River 1-1 America FC (3-4 pen.)
Wednesday, February 26 at 11.30pm in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Sao Luiz 0-0 America FC
Wednesday, February 5 at 11.30pm in Copa do Brasil


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