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Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 23, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Heriberto Hulse
B

Criciuma
0 - 2
Bahia


Meritao (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
de Pena (89'), Lucas (90+3')
Lucas (48'), Xavier (55'), Luciano (84')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Vasco 0-4 Criciuma
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Bragantino
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Criciuma 0-0 Bahia (Bahia advances 1-0 on aggregate)

The visitors should be more than comfortable playing in what we believe will be a close game, and we expect their poise in their backline will allow them to fend off any Criciuma attacks on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
CriciumaDrawBahia
34.85% (-0.126 -0.13) 26% (-0.227 -0.23) 39.15% (0.354 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.08% (0.733 0.73)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.7% (0.947 0.95)50.3% (-0.946 -0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (0.835 0.83)72.25% (-0.833 -0.83)
Criciuma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.32% (0.379 0.38)27.67% (-0.379 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.77% (0.484 0.48)63.23% (-0.483 -0.48)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.77% (0.626 0.63)25.23% (-0.625 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.03% (0.853 0.85)59.97% (-0.852 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Criciuma 34.85%
    Bahia 39.15%
    Draw 26%
CriciumaDrawBahia
1-0 @ 8.97% (-0.249 -0.25)
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.76% (-0.098 -0.1)
3-1 @ 3.4% (0.04 0.04)
3-0 @ 2.47% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.34% (0.069 0.07)
4-1 @ 1.09% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 34.85%
1-1 @ 12.35% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 6.98% (-0.271 -0.27)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.103 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26%
0-1 @ 9.62% (-0.195 -0.2)
1-2 @ 8.51% (0.071 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.62% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.91% (0.102 0.1)
0-3 @ 3.04% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.51% (0.091 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 1.05% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 39.15%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Vasco 0-4 Criciuma
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Criciuma
Thursday, April 18 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Criciuma 1-1 Juventude
Saturday, April 13 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Santo Andre 4-1 Criciuma
Wednesday, February 5 at 7.30pm in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Bragantino
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Botafogo 1-2 Bahia
Sunday, May 5 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Gremio
Sunday, April 28 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vitoria 2-2 Bahia
Sunday, April 21 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 2-1 Fluminense
Wednesday, April 17 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Internacional 2-1 Bahia
Saturday, April 13 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro


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