Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 61.37%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
0.8) 
-0.28) 
