SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 59.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 18.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Nacional Potosi win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| El Nacional | Draw | Nacional Potosi |
59.81% ( -1.3) | 21.32% ( 0.7) | 18.87% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 55.3% ( -1.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.98% ( -2.25) | 42.02% ( 2.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.58% ( -2.29) | 64.42% ( 2.3) |
| El Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.33% ( -1.09) | 13.67% ( 1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.13% ( -2.22) | 40.87% ( 2.23) |
| Nacional Potosi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.06% ( -0.68) | 35.94% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.28% ( -0.7) | 72.72% ( 0.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| El Nacional | Draw | Nacional Potosi |
| 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.58)2-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.26)3-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.27)4-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.2)4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.18)5-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.17)5-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.14)Other @ 3.15% Total : 59.81% | 1-1 @ 10% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.48)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.32% | 1-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.41)0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.67% Total : 18.87% |
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