Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 46.38%. A win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Boca Juniors in this match.