Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 22.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.