SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 25.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Palestino win it was 0-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Palestino |
48.32% ( -0.26) | 26.24% ( 0) | 25.44% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 48.56% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.81% ( 0.17) | 55.19% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.57% ( 0.14) | 76.43% ( -0.14) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.13% ( -0.05) | 22.87% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.39% ( -0.07) | 56.61% ( 0.07) |
| Palestino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.96% ( 0.32) | 37.04% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.17% ( 0.31) | 73.83% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Palestino |
| 1-0 @ 12.49% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 9.22% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.84% Total : 48.31% | 1-1 @ 12.41% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 8.41% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.16% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.76% Total : 25.44% |
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