Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Bari had a probability of 19.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 1-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Bari win it was 1-2 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
1.19) 
-0.27) 
