Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Zimbabwe had a probability of 24.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Zimbabwe win it was 0-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.