Had this match occurred a couple of months ago, Pontarlier may have been in line for an upset against an OL side where morale was about as low as we have ever seen.
A lot has changed over the past few weeks in Lyon, however, and we expect the visitors to maintain the tremendous defensive discipline they showed at the end of 2023 and dismantle a Pontarlier side that look far inferior to them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 98.17%. A draw had a probability of 1.5% and a win for Pontarlier had a probability of 0.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-5 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (11.16%) and 0-6 (10.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (0.69%), while for a Pontarlier win it was 2-1 (0.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Lyon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lyon.
0.03) 
-0.19) 
