SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aarhus win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Randers had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aarhus win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Randers win was 1-0 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aarhus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Randers | Draw | Aarhus |
29.35% ( -0.36) | 25.07% ( 0.06) | 45.58% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 55.06% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.91% ( -0.46) | 48.09% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.75% ( -0.42) | 70.25% ( 0.42) |
| Randers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.81% ( -0.48) | 30.19% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.66% ( -0.58) | 66.34% ( 0.58) |
| Aarhus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.87% ( -0.06) | 21.13% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.03% ( -0.09) | 53.97% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Randers | Draw | Aarhus |
| 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.15% Total : 29.35% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.06% | 0-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 9.23% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.99% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 45.58% |
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